29Metals Mine Drilling Yields High-Grade Extension, LME Copper Edges Up Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,885/mt, initially touched a low of $12,825/mt, then the price center rose, touched a high of $13,028/mt before a slight correction, and finally closed at $12,987/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 327,000 lots, an increase of 2,567 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by long position increases. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 101,030 yuan/mt, initially touched a low of 99,620 yuan/mt, then the price center rose and hovered at highs, approaching the session end touched a high of 102,000 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 101,680 yuan/mt, up 1.02%. Trading volume reached 79,000 lots, and open interest reached 221,000 lots, an increase of 3,115 lots from the previous trading day, also mainly reflecting long position increases.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 19, 29Metals announced the latest drilling results for the Golden Grove mine in 2025. High-grade copper and zinc resource extensions were continuously encountered in multiple ore bodies at Gossan Hill, indicating potential for further extension of the mine's service life. Representative results included Tryall 22.3m @ 3.6% Cu, Oizon/Hougoumont Extended 42.2m @ 9.5% Zn, and Europa 52.6m @ 3.6% Cu. These results have not yet been incorporated into the resource and reserve estimates as of the end of 2024.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 19, the SHFE copper 2602 contract first rose, then fell, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. It opened at 101,070 yuan/mt, rose multiple times to touch 101,400 yuan/mt, then fell, twice probing lows of 100,700 yuan/mt, before gradually stabilizing and showing a rebounding trend, closing at 101,160 yuan/mt. The contango spread for the deferred month was between 250 yuan/mt and 200 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 1,050 yuan/mt and 1,130 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, with the copper price center shifting lower, downstream buyers primarily made just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading atmosphere is unlikely to improve significantly. It is expected that the outflow of delivery warrants will further pressure spot premiums/discounts. The spot market is expected to maintain a discount today.
(2) Guangdong: On January 19, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 120-50 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 85 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 210-170 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 190 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,915 yuan/mt, down 1,410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 100,810 yuan/mt, down 1,410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices pulled back, downstream restocking increased and inventory decreased, leading to improved spot trade activity.
(3) Imported copper: On January 19, warrant prices were $20-36/mt, QP January, with the average price down $4/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $20-34/mt, QP February, with the average price down $9/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$14/mt to $2/mt, QP February, with the average price down $5/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 19, the futures closing price was 101,160 yuan/mt, down 530 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were -120 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price of copper scrap dropped 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,200-89,400 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,444 yuan/mt, up 53 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,645 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices fluctuated, many secondary copper rod enterprises were not active in raw material procurement quotations, mostly adopting a "bargain-hunting" mentality, resulting in generally moderate transactions in the copper scrap market during the day.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump's threat of tariff hikes against Europe over the Greenland issue prompted investors to shift to safe-haven currencies, weakening the US dollar index and providing support for copper prices. Meanwhile, market concerns over supply intensified due to Chile's downward revision of short-term production expectations, boosting copper prices. Additionally, China's steady GDP growth in 2025 bolstered optimistic market demand expectations, positively impacting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, arrivals of imported copper increased slightly, while domestic supply arrivals were normal, resulting in a relatively loose overall supply landscape. Demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment recovered slightly as copper prices retreated, but overall improvement remained limited. Inventory side, as of January 19, SMM's copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased 12.27% WoW. Overall, consumption remained weak due to suppressed copper prices, and domestic social inventories were still in a buildup phase, limiting upside potential for copper prices today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]